The Sky is Falling…..NOT!!

At the beginning of April, all the “experts” were predicting that the newly imposed tariffs, most of which have now been in place for a full six weeks, would result in renewed inflation.  Guess what?  April’s came in at 2.3%, which is not only down and less than “expected”, but also the lowest since February 2021.  New trade deals are starting to come in almost daily, and if that continues, then don’t expect inflation to rekindle long-term.  As I’ve said repeatedly, unlike inflation in the Biden administration, expect the trade disruption to be transitory.  There is too much incentive, guided by self-interest, for the rest of the world to come to new, fairer, and more mutually beneficial trade deals with the US.

The Fed has decided to stay on the sidelines regarding rates and likely won’t do anything until the 90-day tariff pause with China shakes out. At the beginning of the year, I predicted at most 2 rate cuts, and I’ll stick by that, though quite frankly, they probably have the room to cut rates and likely should. Rates are currently sitting around 6.875%.

So what does all this mean for the local real estate market?  Thus far, this is a little cooler spring market than we are used to.  Sales are rising each week for the last 3 weeks after the Easter holiday, from 764 two weeks ago to 802 last week, but not the increases we are looking for.  Inventory actually went down a tick, from 3,359 to 3,339.  Last year, for reference, we were at 1,802.  This translates into a 1.3 months supply of homes (only .9 for rentals).  Still a full-on seller’s market, but trending towards a bit more balance.  These shifts aren’t showing up much in prices, but more in things like contingencies in contracts, showings, number of offers, and days on the market.

This points to a healthy spring market for sellers who prep and price their homes properly, and especially for buyers who have more choices and a little more leeway on terms.  If it’s time to buy or sell reach out and I’ll help you navigate this evolving market.

It’s a good life.

Chris