JANUARY 2026
YOUR GATEWAY TO REAL ESTATE
Monthly Market Update
2026 Predictions and What It Means for You
It’s a New Year, and so it’s time for my Annual Real Estate predictions, but let’s have a little fun and see how I did last year first! Did I knock it out of the park, or do I have egg on my face?
Here’s last year’s predictions:
- Mortgage rates will increase in volatility as the Trump administration takes big swings on the economy, how government functions, and regulations. But I expect the rate volatility to be contained within the range we saw last year, though perhaps just a tick lower. Started the year in the upper 6’s and ended it in the lower 6’s. Off to a good start!
- Inventory levels will remain low but improve slightly. The reality will set in that the current interest rate environment is the new normal, and homeowners who didn’t sell because they were “rate locked” in their current mortgages will remember why they wanted to sell and move in the first place. Additionally, during the change in administrations, we will see more government turnover than we have historically, adding to inventory. Some sellers definitely did get off the sidelines, and inventory did rise a bit through the summer, but then the year closed out with weekly inventory declines for the last 13 weeks of the year to finish down for the year. So I missed on this by a little bit.
- Home prices will continue to rise due to low inventory and strong demand. Affordability will remain a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers. Values in the NOVA market rose about 5%. Check.
- Many predict that the Fed will cut rates 4 times or more. Take the “Under” on that one. There were 3 cuts. So far so good.
- Fewer agents will remain in the business due to declining transactions and commission changes. This will be a good thing for everyone. NAR membership declined by 8%. On a roll now.
- Homeowner’s insurance rates will rise due to the impact of natural disasters, making insurance harder to secure in some areas. Insurance rose nationally between 8% and 10%. It was worse in disaster areas like Louisiana (27%) and California (21%). I’m en fuego.
- Inflation is THE KEY indicator that everyone should be looking at for its impact on the housing market. It drives FED action on rates (impacting supply and affordability) and on personal budgets (impacting demand). It should stay manageable, in the range of 2.5–3%, and perhaps lower by the 4th quarter as the Trump administration’s expected energy policies and deregulation drive down cost-push inflation pressures. Pretty close on this one. It never topped 3%, but it hit 2.3% and 2.4% in April/May.
- Now more than ever, having a Realtor represent you is critical to navigating the evolving real estate landscape. Nailed it!
So not perfect, but perhaps Nostradamus adjacent?
Now onto this year’s predictions!
- Mortgage rates will continue to be volatile week to week, and stay within a range of about 3/4%-1%, but that range will be lower. They will decline into the 5’s, but will not drop below 5.25%.
- Economic growth will be robust as deregulation, tax reforms from the Big Beautiful Bill, and expanding energy production take full hold. At least one quarter will exceed 5%, likely 2.
- Inventory levels will increase modestly. I’m going back to this one. People are looking for the magic number for interest rates that will unlock handcuffed inventory, but that will not happen this year, nor will there be any major economic reasons for the same. It will be more of a slow burn.
- The Trump administration will roll out an impressively large number of policies aimed at improving affordability for homebuyers, especially first time buyers. Things like the proposed 50 year mortgage and the Fed resuming bond purchases. Whether they will have the intended impact will have to be seen, but a strong effort will be made.
- Strong demand and limited inventory will continue to drive up home prices in Northern Virginia. I’m seeing predictions of 3%-4%. I’ll take the “Over”.
- Northern Virginia price growth will beat the national average by at least 2.5%.
- Now more than ever, having an outstanding Realtor represent you is critical to navigating the evolving landscape.
As we step into 2026, it’s clear that the real estate market will continue to present its challenges, but with the right guidance, opportunities abound. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand how these changes affect you, I’m here to help. Together, we can navigate this ever-changing market.
Recipe of the Month | Broccoli Cheese Casserole
Cook Time: 45 minutes | Servings: 8
Ingredients:
- 1 (10.5 ounce) can condensed cream of mushroom soup
- 1 cup mayonnaise
- 1 large egg, beaten
- ¼ cup chopped onion
- 3 (10 ounce) packages frozen broccoli florets
- 8 ounces shredded sharp Cheddar cheese
- salt and pepper to taste
- 1 dash paprika
Instructions:
-
Gather all ingredients. Preheat the oven to 350 degrees F (175 degrees C). Butter a 9×13-inch baking dish.
- Whisk condensed soup, mayonnaise, egg, and onions together in a medium mixing bowl until combined.
- Place frozen broccoli florets into a very large mixing bowl and break it up if necessary; add soup mixture and mix well to coat. Sprinkle with cheese and mix well; spread mixture into the prepared baking dish. Season with salt, pepper, and paprika.
- Bake in the preheated oven until cheese has melted and the casserole is golden brown on top, 45 minutes to 1 hour.
- Serve & Enjoy!
Monthly Home Maintenance Tips
+ Check and recharge fire extinguishers and make sure they’re easily accessible during peak heating and fireplace use.
+ Review and adjust your programmable thermostat settings to balance comfort and energy savings during prolonged cold snaps.
+ Service snow-removal equipment (snow blower, shovels, ice chippers) so you’re ready for late-season storms common in our area.
+ Inspect and clean your whole-house or portable humidifier to improve air quality and prevent dry-air damage to wood floors and furniture.
JUST SOLD IN SPRINGFIELD!
6611 Burlington Place, Springfield, VA
This sale is a perfect example of what happens when preparation is done right. Strategic renovations helped position the home competitively in the market. Thoughtful marketing created excitement and urgency from the moment it launched. Buyers could immediately see the value in a home that was carefully prepared. When homes are properly positioned, they don’t linger on the market. Preparation reduces stress and maximizes opportunity. The right strategy makes all the difference.
