The REAL Market Update

Don’t expect the traditional Holiday season slow down.  The limited inventory situation coupled with the market forces I have blogged about all year insure that the normal ebbs and flows of the annual real estate cycle are being smoothed out.  While there will be some moderation of house hunting activity that will just mean that sellers will perhaps be choosing between 3 or 4 contracts instead of 8.  Savvy buyers will look at this as a chance to, well, have a chance on some properties.  Last month 70% of our home sales were multiple contract scenarios.

Consumer and business confidence continues to be strong.  We had the highest ranking for the new home builder confidence index in the last 35 years.  Forbearance levels dipped yet again to their lowest level since this all started.

Now onto the usual local market stats.  Inventory stood at 3,083 homes which is down 14% from last year.  Most of the year these levels stood between 28% and 32% down from the previous year so that is an improvement.  Sales are up 34% week over week, and prices are up 11% year over year.  We have a 1 months supply of homes and a mere half month supply of rentals. And the median days on the market are 6 and the mean only 16.

I continue to be asked to speculate on whether there is a likelihood of increased distress sales.  The answer, as I have blogged about repeatedly in the past is I just don’t see it happening, at least until we get a couple of months past the end of the forbearance periods.  Too many homeowners have more than enough equity to get out clean on a standard sale if need be.  There are only 9 foreclosures and 15 short sales in the entire region.

So on the whole excellent news and projections.  Have a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving.

It’s a good life.