January Market Update & Newsletter

Wow, in the blink of an eye, 2023 is over.  A lot happened during the blink, so it was certainly eventful, but time sure does fly.  You may be asking what happened in real estate this year (though if you’ve been reading my blogs or these newsletters you already know the answers!).  Let’s start with interest rates because they have such a profound influence on not only affordability, and thus demand, but also supply.  If you recall, they started the year at just over 6% and then steadily increased until October.  This is when they hit their 20+ year high, topping out at about 8.25%.  Since then, we have had eight straight weeks of declining rates resulting in a much lower rate of about 6.67% today.  This is good news all around and is well below our 50-year average of 7.75%.  Purchasers are taking advantage of these lower rates and sellers are re-thinking a move, especially move-ups.

But, along with the steady rise in rates, we had a lot of volatility during this time which, of course, impacted sales.  At the beginning of the year, we were predicting the total number of sales in the US to decline from just over 5 million to 4.6 million sales. This is down from 6.1 million sales in 2021…huge drops, right?  Well, the volatile interest rate environment created by the necessitated Fed actions to raise rates to combat inflation will result in sales at just 4.1 million in 2023.

This being said, we would have had more sales if we had more inventory.  In Northern Virginia we started the year with 1,611 homes for sale, we reached a high of 2,044 in October and will finish with just 1,065 houses for sale.  The reason for low inventory?  Interest rates- plain and simple.  People are married to their rate and payment.  Eighty-two percent of people with a mortgage have a rate of less than 5%, so they don’t want to give up their low rate for a higher rate–at least right now.  Additionally, prices continue to go up.  At the beginning of 2023, I said prices would continue to increase at the rate of 3-5%.  Well, they increased by 3.5% so this, too, has prevented some from putting their home on the market.  Higher rates and higher prices equal less affordability, and people are staying put.  I must say that for some people staying put and waiting things out is a mistake.  I did some detailed math on one of my blogs in December I hope you will check out that demonstrates why for some that might be the case.

Nationally, “experts” predicted prices would fall and inventory would increase…they were wrong on both fronts.  In the US, prices have gone up over 5%, and inventory, as I mentioned, is very low.

So a few of my predictions for 2024 are:

•Interest rates will continue to decline as inflation is (finally) rounding into check-and it is an election year.  I believe they will be in the low 6’s to high 5’s for much of the year.

•House prices will increase by 1-3% due to strong buyer demand and lower rates which will put upward pressure on prices.  I’m leaning more towards the 3% figure regionally.  Just too much demand, which will only increase as rates moderate.

•We will see more houses sell.  People will trade a 4-5% interest rate for a 5-6% rate because they still have powerful non-financial reasons to move, so more inventory with more demand equals more house sales.

•As wage growth and employment remain strong, I don’t believe we will go into a recession–but if we do, it will be bad for the economy but great for real estate (based mostly on rate policies).

Give me a call if I can help answer any questions–and happy new year!

It’s a good life.

Chris

BUYING A HOME IN 2024? HERE ARE 4 WAYS TO GET STARTED

Read the full article at news.remax.com

The current housing market continues to face adversity, but some real estate experts see promise in the year ahead. As RE/MAX President and CEO Nick Bailey recently shared with Bloomberg, more competitive interest rates could be on the horizon. “That’s going to mean good things for buyers – and better affordability,” he says. For those embarking on their homebuying journey in 2024, here’s where to get started.

1. Get pre-approved for a mortgage

For those purchasing a home with financing, it’s important to meet with a    mortgage lender as early on in the process as possible. After evaluating factors like credit score and income, the lender will determine what type of mortgage you qualify for. While many are familiar with the 30-year conventional loan, there are other options that may be up for consideration, like adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), VA loans, FHA loans, among others. What’s especially helpful is getting pre-approved for a mortgage – this is how you determine your budget and establish a price range to shop in.

2. Find a real estate agent

A trustworthy real estate professional is the go-to expert on all facets of the homebuying process, from finding potential properties to coordinating inspections to negotiating on your behalf to recommending their preferred local service providers after you’ve moved in. They’re also oftentimes one step ahead when it comes to navigating specifications of the local      market. “While the results of the monthly RE/MAX National Housing Report tell an overall story, the key for homebuyers and sellers is to work with a local real estate agent who can speak to the unique local conditions,” Bailey says.

3. Differentiate wants from needs

Identifying wants and needs ahead of touring homes can help ensure you stay on track and consider options that best fit your crucial criteria. The best way to do this is to make a “wants vs. needs” list and prioritize features you can’t live without. To start getting ideas, consider the good things and gripes about your current living situation.

4. Start browsing for homes

Ready to get ideas – or find favorite homes to tour with your real estate agent? Head online and start making a list to share with your real estate agent!

 

Recipe of the Month

Easy One Pot Mac & Cheese

Yield: 10 Servings

Total Time: 35 Minutes

INGREDIENTS

  • 3-1/2 cups whole milk
  • 3 cups water
  • 1 package (16 ounces) elbow macaroni
  • 4 ounces Velveeta, cubed
  • 2 cups shredded sharp cheddar cheese
  • 1/2 teaspoon salt
  • 1/2 teaspoon coarsely ground pepper

DIRECTIONS:

  • In a Dutch oven, combine milk, water and macaroni; bring to a boil over medium heat.
  • Reduce heat and simmer until macaroni is tender and almost all  the cooking liquid has been absorbed, 12-15 minutes, stirring frequently.
  • Reduce heat to low; stir in cheeses until melted. Season with salt and pepper.

 

 

JANUARY DECORATIONS: IDEAS FOR WINTER & AFTER CHRISTMAS STYLE

Read the full article at livingspaces.com

January decorations and winter decor ideas go hand-in-hand. Learn how to style after Christmas with rustic textures and crisp white décor.

Cozy Glamour

Mix comfy layers with silver details for perfect January elegance and winter home decor. Tip: Winter decorations (not Christmas) are all about colors; include an overall palette of fresh whites, tinted metallics and frosty blues! Nothing      embraces a fresh January spirit like a warm and inviting atmosphere – so offset bright, high-gloss surfaces with copper or gold winter table décor in soft, distressed finishes. For winter bedroom decor, give mermaid sequin accent pillows a    winter glow with sophisticated silver and gold. Bring the splendor of a starry night indoors with a burst of enchanting   silver light. Use a small branch of a seasonal plant to freshen the air with a sweet fragrance – and incorporate new        January cheer in unexpected places.

First Snow

Mimic the look of an actual winter landscape with soft white “snowy” floors and warm “woodsy” furniture. To boost the brightness of a winter-white tablescape, remember: there’s nothing like a flood of natural light to invigorate and refresh. Organic materials, rustic finishes and brown-and-white décor enhance a ‘snowy forest’ motif. Champagne gold coasters and wine bottles, plus winter wall decor, add a subtle pop of January color – and prove you don’t have to splurge on fancy décor to create an elegant winter ambiance.

Sparkle + Shine

For winter decor after Christmas, top off cabin-in-the-woods comfort with a dash of dazzling shine. Set a tray of sparkling ornaments against a distressed wood coffee table for rustic January elegance. An “after Christmas” tree shimmer offers a subtle glow – but nothing will light up your winter interior quite like a room-defining lamp. Look for one made of warming wood, like rich oak, to keep a cozy holiday ambiance. Pillows and throws with a ‘barely-there’ sheen will let you catch a beam of winter radiance – even when you’re curled up in full hibernation mode! Note the subtle use of metallics in the bookshelf and fireplace décor above: silver-wrapped presents (an after Christmas recyclable!) and gold decorative boxes add a touch of elegance to an otherwise rustic winter living room decor aesthetic.

More Winter Decorating Ideas After Christmas

After Christmas, keep the tree, ditch the ornaments. Winter-thriving greens like firs (which is the Christmas tree type!) make a home feel cozy and seasonal long into winter. If you want, you can even replace the festive ornaments with neutral, evergreen ornaments, such as non-holiday snowflakes, hanging stars and acorns. If you’re like us, you want to dive head-first into the winter aesthetic, so to help make sure your creativity is sparked in every possible direction, here is a ‘last call’ batch of even more decorating ideas:

  • Non-Christmas garland. String white or green garland around banisters, mantels and cabinetry. As long as it’s plain and free from holly berries or other kitch, it will feel wintry, without feeling Christmasy.
  • Ornaments on mantels. Bulb or bauble ornaments in gold and silver (not green and red!) make an elegant aesthetic without feeling festive. Perfect for arranging over fireplaces.
  • Snowy wall art. Hang up wall art of snowy hills or frozen lakes for a burrrrrr-fect winter feel!

 

COMING SOON IN CENTREVILLE!

Rarely available 4 level townhome in Heritage Estates.  Loft area perfect for your home office! Special backyard with deck, custom patio and hand made brick pizza oven! Wonderfully renovated kitchen and great basement for entertaining or guests! Call me for information!